Budget 2026: why we won’t be guessing, and why you don’t need to either
Dan Browne, Financial Planner | October 2026
This Wednesday, John Healey will deliver his first Budget as Chancellor. There have been leaked briefings, ‘sources close to the Treasury’, think pieces and radio phone-ins, most of them pitched somewhere between mild concern and outright doom.
Some of that speculation will turn out to be right. Plenty of it won’t. And if you’ve felt a knot in your stomach reading it, you’re not alone. Uncertainty about money is uncomfortable, either personal or business.
So here’s where we stand, plainly: we don’t react to rumours or hearsay – we plan for the long term.
Why we’re not making predictions
It would be easy for us to publish a list of “what might happen” and tell you how to get ahead of it. We’ve chosen not to, for two reasons.
The first is that acting on a rumour can cost all of us. Ahead of recent Budgets, people across the country made big, sometimes irreversible decisions on the strength of a headline, such as taking money out of their pensions early to beat a change that never came. Once that money is out, it usually can’t go back in, and the tax and growth consequences remain.
The second is that guessing isn’t advice. If we speculate and we’re wrong, at best we’ve added to the noise. At worst, we’ve nudged someone into a decision that doesn’t suit their circumstances. Your plan should be built on what’s actually been decided and what’s right for you, not on what anyone thinks a Chancellor might say.
A Budget is one small step in a very long walk
It helps to zoom out. Between Budgets and the statements in-between, there are usually two major fiscal events every year. Over a 20-year financial plan, that’s more than 40 moments where the rules could shift.
If you treated each one as a crisis, you’d spend two decades in a near-permanent state of alarm, and you’d probably make worse decisions as a result.
The reality is that most changes are incremental. They can feel daunting when they’re first announced, but they tend to arrive with notice, and there’s almost always a sensible way to adjust.
That’s exactly what a good financial plan is designed to absorb. It’s also where we can help: supporting you to adapt calmly, at the right time.
What we do already know
While we won’t guess at what’s coming, several important changes have already been confirmed. These are worth understanding now, because they’re happening regardless of what the Chancellor says next week.
Inheritance tax on pensions
From 6 April 2027, most unused pension funds and pension death benefits will count towards the value of your estate for inheritance tax purposes. Until now, pensions have generally sat outside your estate, which made them a useful way to pass wealth on.
The legislation is now in place, so this is no longer a proposal. Anything left to a spouse or civil partner, including pensions, remains exempt. Many death in service benefits paid through registered pension schemes also remain outside the scope of these changes, although the position can depend on how the scheme is structured. And the personal representatives of an estate will be responsible for reporting and paying any tax due on the pension element, which makes it all the more important that your paperwork is in good order.
Changes to Cash ISAs
From 6 April 2027, if you’re under 65, the most you’ll be able to pay into Cash ISAs each tax year falls from £20,000 to £12,000. Your overall ISA allowance stays at £20,000, so the remaining £8,000 can still go into a Stocks and Shares ISA.
The changes also affect some transfers into Cash ISAs, meaning under-65s may have less flexibility to move ISA savings back into cash after April 2027.
If you’re 65 or over, nothing changes and you’ll keep the full £20,000 Cash ISA allowance. Money you’ve already saved in a Cash ISA isn’t affected either. And for the current tax year, which runs to 5 April 2027, the existing £20,000 limit still applies.
Your First Home: a new route for first-time buyers
Getting a first step on to the property ladder continues to be an area of concern for many. The rising cost of living makes saving a deposit tricky and uncertainty regarding interest rates means many lenders’ affordability calculations are tight to ensure they are lending in a responsible manner. As always understanding what’s available and preparing early can make all the difference.
Last month, the government announced a new equity loan scheme called Your First Home. It’s aimed at first-time buyers in England purchasing a new-build property from a participating developer.
Based on what’s been announced so far, buyers will need a deposit of at least 2.5%, with the government lending up to 20% of the property’s value through an equity loan. That loan will start with an interest-free period, and the rest will be covered by a mortgage. There will be caps on household income and on property prices in different areas. The full details are due to be set out in the Budget, with pre-registration expected to open by the end of 2026.
So, what should you do before 28 October?
Honestly, for most people, nothing dramatic. Keep doing what your plan already sets out. Don’t move money, cash in investments or make major decisions based on something you’ve read about what ‘might’ be announced.
If something specific is worrying you, talk to us. That’s what we’re here for, and a quick conversation is far better than a rushed decision.
Get in touch with our team to discuss your plans, understand your options, and find out what steps you can take now to put yourself in the best possible position.
Once the Chancellor has spoken and the detail has been published, we’ll share a clear, plain-English summary of what’s actually changed and what, if anything, it means for you. And if anything does need action, we’ll be in touch.
Until then, keep calm and keep the long view.